The War Tax: What the Iran Conflict Is Costing Your Trip to Europe

So you read my piece from early March about whether Europe is safe right now (short answer: yes, go, stop panicking), and now you're asking the follow-up question, which is: okay but is it going to cost me more? And the answer is... kind of, yeah. But it's more complicated than the headlines and panicked fellow travelers are making it sound.

The fuel situation

When the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28th, oil prices went absolutely sideways. Jet fuel, which was running around $2.50 a gallon before the conflict started, shot up to nearly $4 a gallon almost immediately. Where I live, I’m looking at over $5 a gallon and rising. Crude oil hit over $100 a barrel for the first time in years. Airlines were not thrilled about this, as you can imagine, since fuel is typically their second-biggest operating expense after paying the people who actually fly the planes.

So yes, some airlines have already raised prices. Qantas, SAS, Air New Zealand, and Air France-KLM have all either hiked fares or added fuel surcharges on international routes since the conflict began. And there will almost certainly be more to follow. One travel industry expert I came across put it pretty bluntly: airlines can't legally collude to raise prices together, but they're all dealing with the same market forces, so don't be surprised when they all independently "decide" to raise fares at roughly the same time and cite the same reason for it. She called it "excuseflation.”

Fuel surcharges

European carriers in particular love to break their ticket prices into two parts: the base fare, and the fuel surcharge. They're both in the total price you pay, but they show up as separate line items. This matters because if you're redeeming frequent flyer miles for a transatlantic flight, you often only pay the base fare in miles, and then the fuel surcharge gets tacked on in cash. That surcharge, not surprisingly, has gone up considerably since the war started.

To give you a concrete example: a business class ticket from San Francisco to London was recently running around $6,300 total, with the base fare portion at $3,300 and the fuel surcharge at about $2,555 — up roughly $400 since February. So if you were planning to use miles for a transatlantic trip, you haven't necessarily escaped the war-related price increases just because you're not paying for the ticket itself. Check your total out-of-pocket cost including surcharges before you assume you're getting a deal.

(This does NOT work the same way for flights to Asia, where carriers structure their pricing completely differently and fuel surcharges are much lower. For Europe though, this is very much a thing.)

The airspace problem

As you may have guess, there is also now a massive hole in the sky over the Middle East, and it's affecting flight routes globally. This has already been happening in the skies over Ukraine since the Russians invaded them a few years ago.

Airspace over Iran, Iraq, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and surrounding areas has been either fully closed or heavily restricted since the war began. This is actually a huge deal because that corridor is one of the busiest in the world, especially for flights between Europe and Asia. Airlines that used to route through it are now flying significantly longer paths, burning more fuel, and in some cases cutting flights entirely because the economics stopped making sense.

For Americans flying direct to Western Europe on a U.S. carrier — your standard New York to Rome or Seattle to Amsterdam kind of trip — this probably doesn't affect your route much. You're going over the Atlantic and that airspace is fine. BUT if your itinerary connects through Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, or any other Middle Eastern hub, please go check your booking right now. Turkish Airlines already canceled service to a bunch of regional destinations. Other carriers have done the same. If you have a connection through the Middle East and nobody has contacted you yet, call your airline and ask specifically whether your routing is still operating as booked.

So what is this actually costing?

Estimates I've seen put the war-related impact on spring airfares at around 10-15% above where they were before February 28th, with summer 2026 fares tracking potentially 18% higher than last summer. That's not nothing, especially layered on top of a dollar that's already down 10-12% against the euro since last year. If you haven't booked your flights yet and you're planning a summer trip, you are getting hit from both directions simultaneously and I am so sorry about that.

The good news, such as it is: if you already have tickets that you bought before the war started, your price is locked in. Surcharges only apply to new bookings. So if you're already ticketed, you are fine on that front.

What should you actually do?

Book sooner rather than later. Every week this conflict continues is another week of potential surcharge increases, and the longer fuel prices stay elevated, the more airlines will feel justified in passing those costs along. It’s true that you could follow this advice and fuel costs could drop tomorrow, or you could wait and fuel costs could continue to rise and price you out completely. The way this war is going, I would bet on the ladder rather than the former. If you can afford it now, I would book now.

If you're planning to use miles for a transatlantic flight, do the math carefully on the total out-of-pocket cost including fuel surcharges before you commit. In some cases right now, paid economy is actually coming out cheaper than "free" business class once you factor in what you're paying in surcharges plus the miles you're spending.

If your itinerary touches the Middle East at any point, call your airline and confirm your routing is still intact.

Keep an eye on the situation overall, because if the conflict de-escalates, fuel prices should ease and airlines will eventually follow, though probably not as fast as you'd like. The Straight of Hormuz, where so much of the oil Europe uses has to pass through, continues to be a sticking point, and the restrictions will take a while to rectify if/when tensions ease in the region.

The bottom line is: getting to Europe is costing more than it was six months ago, for a combination of reasons that are all happening at the same time and none of them are particularly fun. But Europe is still there, it is still magnificent, and it is not telling you not to come. It's just going to cost you a little more to get there than you maybe planned for.